Before You Buy Solar Panels in 2026: The Credit Is Gone, Dealer Fees Hide in the Price, and Your Electric Rate Decides the Math

Somebody is sitting at a kitchen table this week with a quote for $26,000.

They're doing the subtraction in their head. Thirty percent off. Call it eighteen thousand after the credit.

That subtraction is wrong by $7,800.

Public Law 119-21 was signed July 4, 2025. It says the homeowner credit doesn't apply to expenditures made after December 31, 2025.

The IRS says the same.

The catch is the date. Under 26 U.S.C. 25D(e)(8)(A), an expenditure is treated as made when the original installation is completed. So a contract signed in 2025 and finished in 2026 gets nothing.

The original law ran at 30 percent through 2032, then 26 percent in 2033 and 22 percent in 2034. Ending after 2025 cut it off nine years before the end of 2034.

On the default system in the calculator below, $19,240, 30 percent was $5,772. Our arithmetic.

If the quote subtracts 30 percent, the quote is wrong.

Most of the internet hasn't caught up. Search for payback periods and you'll find confident articles written when a third of the price came back as a credit. They aren't lying. They describe a deal that no longer exists.

The IRS page we read still mentions a phase-out in 2033, and it still links 2025-era forms. The statute's wording is the one to follow.

Unused 2025 credit can be carried forward, the IRS says. If you finished an install in 2025 and are filing, talk to a tax professional.

EnergySage, a marketplace, shows these average quotes before incentives. Its page was updated June 30, 2026:

Its all-quote average is about $2.60 a watt. Its state table was last updated October 9, 2026. It runs from Texas at $2.25 a watt to Alabama at $3.82, or $54,749 for a system.

Now the other number. Berkeley Lab's Tracking the Sun report (2024 edition, covering 2023 installs, as Inside Climate News reported it) put the median at $4.20 a watt. The middle 60 percent of projects ran $3.20 to $5.50. The median system was 7.4 kilowatts.

That's 1.6 times EnergySage's figure. Our arithmetic.

Don't blend them. Berkeley Lab looks at reported prices of real systems nationwide. EnergySage shows quotes to shoppers on one platform. We couldn't open Berkeley Lab's own site and found no newer edition than 2024.

The Department of Energy quotes an average home system of 7.15 kilowatts, with a range from 3 to 11.

State money can matter. New York's tax department lists a credit of 25 percent of equipment cost up to $5,000. That page is dated December 16, 2019, so confirm it's current. Other states differ.

Your electric rate decides this purchase.

The default system is 7.4 kilowatts at $2.60 a watt. That's $19,240. We assume it makes 9,620 kilowatt-hours a year, 1,300 per kilowatt. That yield is our assumption, because we found no sourced national figure.

Here's the simple payback at different rates. Our arithmetic. It assumes every kilowatt-hour is worth your full retail rate:

The prices come from the Energy Information Administration. The US residential average was 18.31 cents in July 2026, up from 17.45 a year earlier. The first seven months of 2026 ran 6.9 percent over 2025.

In states with net billing, like California, power you export earns less. So the high-rate rows are optimistic.

At Berkeley Lab's $4.20 a watt, the same house takes 17.8 years at the US average rate. Our arithmetic.

A 10-year payback at $2.60 a watt needs about 20 cents per kilowatt-hour. At $4.20 it needs about 32 cents. In July 2026 only Hawaii, California and Maine topped that.

With the old 30 percent credit, the default system would have paid back in 7.7 years. Without it, 11.0. That's 3.3 years longer.

A payback past 12 years has to survive 12 years of your life going to plan.

The average US household uses 10,791 kilowatt-hours a year, per the Energy Information Administration's 2022 data. Louisiana uses the most and Hawaii the least.

Same system. Same savings. Different financing.

At the calculator defaults, with 3 percent yearly price growth and 0.5 percent yearly panel loss, the system saves about $59,657 over 25 years. Our arithmetic.

The loan rows use 7.5 percent over 20 years. Every row subtracts one $2,250 inverter replacement.

In year one, the 20 percent fee loan costs $186.00 a month against $145.82 of savings. That's about $40 a month underwater.

The result moves a lot with the guesses:

The dealer fee is the one you control. Borrow from your own bank or credit union and compare it with the dealer's number. The Treasury Department's consumer advisory says you aren't required to use the financing the salesperson offers.

A dealer fee is a charge from the lender to the installer. The installer raises your price to cover it. The advertised rate looks low.

The CFPB's August 7, 2024 report says these fees typically run 10 to 30 percent of the cash price but can top 50 percent. They can push the loan above the cash price by 30 percent or more.

Advertised rates on solar loans typically run 1 to 7 percent, the CFPB says. They often leave out the fees folded into the principal.

The CFPB also describes loans that re-amortize at the 19th month. The payment jumps unless you make a substantial prepayment, often 30 percent of the principal. That was sized to the old credit.

With the credit gone, a loan built on a 30 percent prepayment has no credit to fund it.

On rates:

EnergySage's median solar loan rate was 7.5 percent in the first half of 2025, the latest we could confirm.

The Federal Reserve's August 2026 rate on 24-month bank personal loans was 11.90 percent. Credit cards were assessed 22.36 percent. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average was 7.40 percent on October 15, 2026, against 6.27 a year earlier. A home-equity loan to pay for solar costs more than it did.

Get the cash price and the financed price on paper. Worry if you hear a fee you don't pay, or a zero percent offer with a price above the cash price.

With the homeowner credit gone, the lease pitch got louder.

The company that owns the system on your roof can still claim a business credit, Section 48E. It isn't Section 48, as older articles say. For solar, 48E ends for systems placed in service after December 31, 2027. The exception is construction that began by July 4, 2026. That date has passed.

IRS Notice 2025-42 still lets solar of 1.5 megawatts or less use a 5 percent cost safe harbor to show construction began. Foreign-entity restrictions took effect January 1, 2026, and Sunrun's annual filing says Treasury's final rules are due by December 31, 2026.

That risk is the provider's, not yours. But a provider that can't qualify may reprice, delay or cancel. Ask the contract what happens.

Here's what a lease or PPA looks like, using Sunrun's own documents:

• Initial terms "typically" run 20 or 25 years
• After that it renews automatically, annually or for five years
• The rate rises each year by the rate defined in your agreement
• A buyout is only available at specific times in your agreement
• At the end you can purchase the system, ask the provider to remove it or renew
• Sunrun says it will transfer the agreement to a home buyer, and to start the transfer as soon as the home is under contract

The CFPB says PPA escalators range from 1 to 5 percent. We found no sourced average. As an illustration only, a 2.5 percent escalator makes the year-25 rate 1.80 times the first-year rate. That's 1.025 to the 24th power.

Sunrun reports 94 percent of its second-quarter 2026 customer additions were subscriptions.

Then the sale. Fannie Mae counts a lease payment in the buyer's debt-to-income ratio unless it's fixed-energy, fixed-payment with a production guarantee. It says the value of leased panels can't be added to the appraisal.

A lease isn't cheaper power. It's a contract that outlives your plans.

It can fit someone who'll stay a long time and can't pay up front. It's a poor fit if you might move within a few years.

Panels carry a 25-year warranty. A roof under them might not last that long.

The Department of Energy tells buyers to check the roof's age and replace it before going solar if it's near the end of its life.

If you mount a 25-year system on a roof with eight years left, you'll pay to remove every panel, replace the roof and put the panels back.

Fixr and an installer blog put that at $200 to $300 per panel. Those are vendor pages, not a government source.

A 7.4-kilowatt system is roughly 18 to 22 panels. That's $3,600 to $6,600. Our arithmetic.

Get the roof assessed by someone who isn't selling you solar. Ask:

• How many years of life does the roof have left?
• What is the deck like underneath?
• What shades the roof at 10 a.m., at 2 p.m. and in December?
• Who pays to detach and reset the panels, and at what price per panel?
• Who covers a leak at a mount, and for how long?

Sunrun says its roof penetrations are covered by its workmanship warranty. It doesn't state the term on the page we read.

A leak at a mount sits between two contractors. Each can blame the other. Get the answer in writing before there's a leak.

For how roofs fail and how roofers sell, see the roofing guide.

A 25-year warranty is only as good as whoever is still around.

SunPower. It filed Chapter 11 on August 5, 2024 in Delaware.

Mosaic. The loan platform filed Chapter 11 in June 2025. Its servicer's FAQ treats June 6, 2025 as the cutoff. We didn't open the docket.

Borrowers were told there'd be no changes to payment terms. Solar Servicing LLC completed its acquisition of the servicing operations on September 22, 2025.

Sunnova. It filed Chapter 11 on June 8, 2025 in Texas. Its page says it has ceased independent operations. SunStrong Management took over servicing, and Sunnova customers were told to keep paying as usual.

On March 17, 2026 the Connecticut attorney general said the state had received about 65 complaints about SunStrong. The complaints covered warranties, unanswered complaints and a $10 monthly fee for production data. The state sent SunStrong a civil investigative demand on February 27. Those are concerns, not findings.

In Connecticut's Vision Solar case, the attorney general says Vision won't have enough assets to pay a $5 million judgment because it filed bankruptcy. Dividend Finance, Vision's largest financing partner, agreed in 2025 to give relief to defrauded Vision borrowers.

The Ohio attorney general alleges G3 Solar failed to honor written warranties, ignored service requests and made customers wait a year before reviewing system performance. Those are allegations.

So ask who services and warrants your system if this company fails. Worry if there's no named successor, no assignable warranty and no insurance behind it.

A solar deal can leave a claim on your house.

The Treasury Department's advisory tells buyers to ask whether a UCC or other lien will go on the home or the system. It says UCC-1 liens can affect whether a buyer wants the home.

It also says a PACE loan is a property-tax lien that takes priority over your mortgage.

Fannie Mae accepts a precautionary UCC filing that covers only the solar equipment. A fixture filing on separately financed owned panels is different. The debt counts toward the buyer's ratios. The panels count toward value only if they can't be repossessed for default.

In 2022 the FTC and California took on Ygrene Energy Fund, a PACE provider. They alleged it deceived homeowners and placed liens that made homes harder to sell. The settlement required $3 million to help remove those liens.

Ask in writing whether any lien or filing will be recorded, and what a buyer must do to clear or assume it. Worry if the answer is nothing to worry about with no document.

For buying or selling a house that already has panels, see the home guide.

These are public cases. Most are allegations or settlements without a finding.

Free solar. The FTC's September 26, 2024 alert says a door-knocker promising free rooftop panels is likely a scam. Going solar isn't free, the FTC says. A claim that a government program pays the whole cost is a lie. The Treasury Department's advisory says the same thing about the federal government.

G3 Solar, Ohio, January 12, 2026. The attorney general sued in Franklin County. The suit alleges 20 to 30 year loans whose payments rose after 18 months unless the customer made a voluntary payment of about 30 percent. It alleges misleading statements about tax credits, including to some elderly consumers with little or no earned income.

Attyx (New York, March 17, 2026). The attorney general sued Attyx and two lenders, Solar Mosaic and WebBank. It alleges the lenders' fees were concealed inside high prices. It estimates nearly $275 million for Attyx in New York alone.

It alleges salespeople said consumers were merely signing application or credit-check forms. It alleges free or reduced-price solar and roof repairs were marketed. The state seeks restitution, voiding of agreements and penalties.

Everlight Solar (Nebraska, September 3, 2026). Sunburn Construction LLC does business as Everlight Solar. It settled with the attorney general. The state alleged false claims that panels would reduce or eliminate electric bills and raise property value. It also alleged the company ignored no-solicitation signs. Everlight agreed to three years of compliance reporting and a $200,000 payment.

The FTC says scammers push an agreement on a tablet without showing you the full contract. The Treasury Department says to be careful signing on the seller's computer and to get a paper copy. If you can't, that's probably a scam.

One rule helps with reviews. The FTC announced a final rule on August 14, 2024 banning fake reviews and testimonials. It bans creating or buying fake reviews, paying for sentiment and review suppression. Knowing violators face civil penalties.

For how home projects go over budget, see the home improvement guide.

What your utility pays for power you send back decides part of the savings.

California is the verified example. The state's Net Billing Tariff covers applications on or after April 15, 2023. It credits exports at an avoided-cost rate and locks that in for 9 years.

The California Public Utilities Commission said when it adopted the tariff on December 15, 2022 that new solar-plus-storage customers should fully pay off their systems in 9 years or less on average. That's the commission's claim.

The Ohio attorney general alleges G3 misstated net metering eligibility and system output.

We found no multi-state count of export-rule changes. Ask for your utility's current rule in writing. Ask which date applies to your connection.

Worry if the savings estimate uses retail rate for every kilowatt-hour without naming the tariff.

The protection is the cancel window and the paper contract.

The FTC Cooling-Off Rule. A sale made at your home for $25 or more, or at a temporary location for $130 or more, can be cancelled until midnight of the third business day. Saturdays count. Sundays and federal holidays don't.

The seller must give you two cancellation forms and a dated copy of the contract. The refund is due within 10 days.

There are exceptions. They include sales completed by mail or phone, sales after negotiating at the seller's permanent place of business and a true emergency with a handwritten, signed, dated waiver.

If your loan is secured by your home, a separate Truth in Lending right to rescind applies, and the Cooling-Off Rule drops out. We didn't re-verify that length.

California gives 3 days, and 5 if you're 65 or older.

We found no federal rule that lets you return a system after it's installed. Your options are the contract, your state attorney general, a CFPB or FTC complaint, small claims or a civil suit.

Warranty norms. We read the Qcells Q.PEAK DUO BLK ML-G10+ page through a search extract. It lists a 25-year product and performance warranty, at least 86 percent of nominal power at year 25 and no more than 0.5 percent loss a year after year one. Another Qcells page described a 12-year product warranty, so read the certificate for your module.

We found no primary source for typical inverter or workmanship warranty years. Don't take a number on faith.

Complaints go to ReportFraud.ftc.gov, the CFPB, your state attorney general, your state utility commission and your state contractor board.

Twelve lines. Each comes with the answer that should worry you.

1. Is any number built on a federal credit? Bad answer: net cost after the 30 percent credit, or the credit is ending so sign today.
2. Cash price and financed price, with the dealer fee in dollars. Bad answer: only a monthly payment, or a zero percent offer with a higher price.
3. System size and cost per watt. Compare $2.56 to $2.78 a watt on EnergySage by size. Bad answer: a refusal to state kilowatts or dollars per watt.
4. Roof life and who pays to detach and reset panels. Bad answer: your roof is fine, with no price for removing panels later.
5. Who covers a leak at a mount, in writing, for how long. Bad answer: that's the roofer's problem.
6. Which export rule applies to your connection date. Bad answer: retail rate for every kilowatt-hour with no tariff named.
7. How the production number was made. Bad answer: no site-specific number, or covers 100 percent of your bill with no usage data.
8. License, insurance and who installs. The Department of Energy suggests installers certified by NABCEP. Bad answer: the salesperson can't name the licensed entity.
9. Who services and warrants the system if this company fails. Bad answer: no named successor and no assignable warranty.
10. Liens and filings. Ask about a UCC-1, a fixture filing and PACE. Bad answer: nothing to worry about, with no document.
11. For a lease or PPA, the full contract terms. Term, escalator and buyout schedule. Transfer on sale and removal at the end. Bad answer: the escalator is about 2 percent, with no contract number.
12. Cancellation notice and a paper copy. Bad answer: the seller doesn't supply the two forms, or asks you to waive in writing.

Six rules. Each one comes from the math and cases above.

We read Congress's public law text, the IRS, the Department of Energy and the Treasury Department. We read the CFPB, the FTC, the Energy Information Administration, the Federal Reserve and Fannie Mae. We read four state attorneys general and the California Public Utilities Commission. We checked them on October 20, 2026. EnergySage, Inside Climate News and Solar Power World are secondary sources.

Sunrun's and Sunnova's own filings and pages are company statements, and we say so where we use them.

Nothing here is tax, legal or financial advice.

The pages we used:

• Public Law 119-21
• The IRS on the residential clean energy credit
• The IRS on the 2025 tax law provisions
• IRS Fact Sheet FS-2025-01
• IRS Notice 2025-42
• 26 U.S.C. 25D
• The Energy Information Administration's July 2026 electricity prices
• The Energy Information Administration's year-to-date prices
• The Energy Information Administration on household use
• EnergySage's solar panel cost page
• Inside Climate News on the Berkeley Lab report
• The Department of Energy's homeowner's guide to going solar
• The Treasury Department's solar consumer advisory
• The CFPB's solar financing issue spotlight
• The FTC's solar scam alert
• The FTC's solar scam business blog
• The FTC's fake review rule
• The FTC Cooling-Off Rule guidance
• 16 CFR 429.0
• The New York attorney general on Attyx
• The Ohio attorney general on G3 Solar
• The Connecticut attorney general on solar accountability
• The Nebraska attorney general on Everlight Solar
• SunPower's SEC filing
• Sunnova's SEC filing
• Solar Power World on SunStrong
• Solar Servicing's corporate FAQ
• Sunrun's annual report
• Sunrun's second-quarter 2026 results
• Sunrun's FAQ
• The California commission's tariff announcement
• Fannie Mae's selling guide on special property considerations
• Freddie Mac's mortgage survey
• The Federal Reserve's consumer credit release
• New York's solar equipment credit
• Fixr on removing and reinstalling panels
• Qcells' module page

What we couldn't confirm:

• Berkeley Lab's own figures, because its site blocked us, and any edition newer than 2024
• A sourced residential production figure per kilowatt
• Typical prices for inverters and typical inverter and workmanship warranty years
• An average lease or PPA escalator
• How many states have cut what they pay for exported power
• Whether the Mosaic bankruptcy filing date and court are exactly as the servicer's FAQ implies
• Whether the New York state credit is still current
• Whether a state protects your right to install solar
• A resale premium for homes with panels
• Qcells' warranty on your exact module

This guide is part of our series on what people research before they buy.